Hindsight Bias
Hindsight bias describes the tendency that people have – once an outcome is known – to believe that they predicted (or could have predicted) an outcome that they did not (or could not) predict. Sometimes referred to as the “knew-it-all-along” effect, it describes times when people conflate an outcome with what they knew at the time. People experiencing hindsight bias “think that they should have known something, or did know something, that would have led them to act differently had they paid more attention to it”, and it is particularly common in survivors of trauma. The Hindsight Bias information handout forms part of the cognitive distortions series, designed to help clients and therapists to work more effectively with common thinking biases.
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Introduction & Theoretical Background
A brief introduction to cognitive distortions
Cognitive distortions, cognitive biases, or ‘unhelpful thinking styles’ are characteristic ways in which our thoughts can become biased (Beck, 1963). As conscious beings we are always interpreting the world around us, trying to make sense of what is happening. Sometimes our brains take ‘short cuts’ and we think things that are not completely accurate, and different cognitive short cuts result in different kinds of bias or distortions in our thinking. Sometimes we might jump to the worst possible conclusion (“this rough patch of skin is cancer!”), at other times we might blame ourselves for things that are not our fault (“If I hadn’t made him angry he wouldn’t have hit me”), and at other times we might rely on intuition and jump to conclusions (“I know that they all hate me even though they’re being nice”).
Different cognitive biases are associated with different clinical presentations. For
Therapist Guidance
Many people struggle with hindsight bias. It sounds as though this might also be relevant to you. Would you be willing to explore it with me?
Clinicians may consider giving clients helpful psychoeducation about automatic thoughts more generally and hindsight bias in particular. Consider sharing some of these important details:
- Automatic thoughts spring up spontaneously in your mind in the form of words or images.
- They are often on the ‘sidelines’ of our awareness. With practice, we can become more aware of them. It is a bit like a theatre – we can bring our automatic thoughts ‘centre stage’.
- Automatic thoughts are not always accurate: just because you think something, it doesn’t make it true.
- Hindsight bias is a common type of bias that can show up in our automatic thoughts.
- Signs that hindsight bias is present might include feelings of guilt, shame, regret, or self-blame. The thoughts that accompany these feelings often contain
References And Further Reading
- Beck, A. T. (1963). Thinking and depression: I. Idiosyncratic content and cognitive distortions. Archives of General Psychiatry, 9, 324-333. DOI: 10.1001/archpsyc.1963.01720160014002.
- Beck, A. T., Rush, A. J., Shaw, B. F., & Emery, G. (1979). Cognitive therapy of depression. Guilford Press.
- Beck, J. S. (1995). Cognitive behavior therapy: Basics and beyond. Guilford Press.
- Blank, H., & Peters, J. H. (2010). Controllability and hindsight components: Understanding opposite hindsight biases for self-relevant negative event outcomes. Memory and Cognition, 38, 356–65. DOI:10.3758/MC.38.3.356.
- Fischhoff, B. (1975). Hindsight ≠ foresight: The effect of outcome knowledge on judgment under uncertainty. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Perception and Performance, 1, 288-299. DOI: 10.1136/qhc.12.4.304.
- Fleming, S., & Robinson, P. (2001). Grief and cognitive–behavioral therapy: The reconstruction of meaning. In M. S. Stroebe, R. O. Hansson, W. Stroebe, & H. Schut (Eds.), Handbook of bereavement research: Consequences, coping, and care (pp. 647–669). American Psychological Association.
- Groß, J., Blank, H., & Bayen, U. J. (2017). Hindsight bias