The Hindsight Bias information handout forms part of the cognitive distortions series, designed to help clients and therapists to work more effectively with common thinking biases.
Offers theory, guidance, and prompts for mental health professionals. Downloads are in Fillable PDF format where appropriate.
Includes client-friendly guidance. Downloads are in Fillable PDF format where appropriate.
Hindsight bias describes the tendency that people have – once an outcome is known – to believe that they predicted (or could have predicted) an outcome that they did not (or could not) predict. Sometimes referred to as the “knew-it-all-along” effect, it describes times when people conflate an outcome with what they knew at the time. People experiencing hindsight bias “think that they should have known something, or did know something, that would have led them to act differently had they paid more attention to it”, and it is particularly common in survivors of trauma. The Hindsight Bias information handout forms part of the cognitive distortions series, designed to help clients and therapists to work more effectively with common thinking biases.
Understanding and addressing hindsight bias can reduce distress. This resource helps clients:
Pervasive sadness and self-blame related to perceived failures.
Exaggerated sense of responsibility for traumatic events.
Hindsight bias associated with bereavement.
Identify clients experiencing hindsight bias.
Explore whether clients relate to the information provided in the handout.
Encourage clients to use the strategies outlined to address their hindsight bias.
Assess any positive changes in clients' thinking, behavior, or emotional responses.
Cognitive distortions, cognitive biases, or ‘unhelpful thinking styles’ are characteristic ways in which our thoughts can become biased (Beck, 1963). Different cognitive biases are associated with different clinical presentations. For example, catastrophizing is associated with anxiety disorders (e.g. Nöel et al, 2012), dichotomous thinking has been linked to emotional instability (Veen & Arntz, 2000), and thought-action fusion is associated with obsessive compulsive disorder (Shafran et al, 1996).
Hindsight bias is sometimes referred to as the “knew-it-all-along” effect. Once an outcome is known, people with this bias are likely to believe that they predicted (or could have predicted) an outcome that they did not (or could not) predict (Fischhoff, 1975). In other words, people often have a tendency to conflate an outcome with what they knew at the time. People experiencing hindsight bias “think that they should have known something, or did know something, that would have led them to act differently had they paid more attention to it” (Young et al., 2021).
Basic psychological research (e.g., Nestler et al., 2010) suggests that there are three kinds of hindsight bias, which Roese and Vohs (2012) conceptualize as a hierarchy. At the bottom level sits memory distortion, which causes earlier judgements to be misremembered. An intermediate ‘inevitability’ level involves beliefs about the state of the world and the predetermination of events (e.g., “Under the circumstances, no different outcome was possible”). At the top level, ‘foreseeability’ describes beliefs about one’s own knowledge and abilities (e.g., “I knew it would happen”). Clinical approaches for working with hindsight bias might address one or all of these levels.
As with other cognitive biases, it can be helpful to consider the function of hindsight bias. Some authors propose that hindsight bias is a by-product of the human capacity for adaptive learning (Pohl et al., 2002). Others suggest that hindsight bias results from a ‘need for closure’, arguing that “people have a need to see the world as predictable and find it threatening to believe that many outcomes are at the mercy of unknown, random chance” (Roese & Vohs, 2012). Furthermore, there may be individual differences in peoples’ predisposition to hindsight bias. For example, evidence suggests that people with dispositionally greater ‘need for control’ or ‘need for closure’ show greater hindsight bias (Campbell et al., 2003; Tykncinski, 2001).
